From this morning's Arvest Skyline Report meeting at the Fayetteville Clarion:

Economic view: Interest rates will go up, relatively quickly, this year and through next. Now is the time to buy if you need financing. Stimulous plan has helped, but only temporarily. Generally, the economy is showing improvement, with consecutive quarters of GDP growth. Why? Inventories are really low, so manu is picking up. Companies are still reluctant to hire, however, and will not likely change for some time.

NWA specific: Generally, Commercial RE has not hit bottom, 2010 will be a really tough year, as more property goes back to banks, foreclosures, etc. Residential markets are showing improvement, have hit botton, and are on way back. Home prices are generally now set back to like they were in 2004. Home inventories are down, building permits slowly on the rise, but to more sustainable levels.

MF: Way overbuilt, especially in Fayetteville. Too much inventory

Data points: Retail and office vacancies are way above national average. Rogers office vacancy - nearing 30%. Rogers retail vacancy - 16%%, national average is 8.5%. Fay office vacancy - 19%, national 18%. Fay retail vacancy - 12%.

Too much commercial inventory in all categories, especially office and strip centers.